Mystery Solved

Since James already got the right answer, I’ll go ahead and post the solution to yesterday’s puzzle.

Scenario: There are two tables left in the tournament, and you have 26,000 in chips – an average stack. The blinds are 600/1200 and you’re dealt Q7o on the big blind. An extremely tough and tricky player open-limps in the cutoff, and the button (another tough player) also calls. The cutoff has about 19,000 chips and the button has you both covered. The small blind folds, and you check. The flop comes Q73 rainbow – you’ve flopped top two pair. You decide to play it straightforwardly, and lead out with a 3,000 bet. The first opponent raises to 10,000 and the second player calls. How do you maximize your expected value on this hand?

Answer: Fold. (Did the line about maximizing value throw you off? The way to maximize value on a losing hand is to muck it!) What can you put these opponents on? Remember the preflop action. Neither one of them would have limped in late position with a hand like AQ or KQ – they would certainly have raised. Their limping indicates they either have a monster hand, or a speculative one such as a suited connector or a small pocket pair. On the flop, the raise to 10K from the first opponent obviously indicates strength, and in this context probably means an overpair that he slowplayed before the flop. That would be fine, of course; but what about the button’s call? A flat call of such a large bet would always look suspicious, but in this case it’s doubly suspicious because there are no draws on board, and no reasonable hand could have made a lesser two pair than yours. He could also have an overpair, but what are the chances of both players deciding to slowplay aces or kings preflop? Conclusion: the button has a set. There’s almost literally nothing else he can be calling with, unless he is a complete idiot, which we know he is not.

And that’s exactly what happened. I used my entire time bank before agonizedly mucking my top two pair. The CO went all-in for his last 8K on the turn, and the button quickly called. They showed down AA and 77 respectively. The button eliminated a tough opponent in a huge pot, and I dodged a bullet!