Rabbit Plays Poker

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

Small Blind Problem

The interesting discussion of small-blind play on this week’s Lord Admiral Card Club podcast got me thinking about some recent hands I’ve played in SNGs. The small blind is indeed the trickiest position to play well. Try thinking out the following hand; it’s not a real hand but is a composite of many. The way I’d play it is written in white letters underneath the action on each street. Highlight the blank spaces to see my take. No reading ahead, and no copping out by saying “I would have played it differently on an earlier street”. Pretend your buddy played the hand up to that point and then had to run to the bathroom.

Level 1 of a $55 no-limit hold’em SNG, first hand. All players have 1000 chips. The blinds are 10/15 and you’re on the small blind. You’re dealt AdKd. A mid-position player limps and the button limps. What’s your play and why?

Answer: This decision is a lot closer than it appears. You’ll be playing out of position for the rest of the hand, and in no-limit hold’em your position is almost as important as your cards, especially when the money is deep. However, suited Big Slick is a very strong hand, and you’d be wasting an opportunity if you didn’t try to extract maximum value. I’d put in an approximately pot-sized raise. Raising here is the equivalent of doubling down with 11 against the dealer’s 10 in blackjack – a +EV but high-variance play. With a slightly weaker hand like AKo or TT, I would be more likely to simply call.











You raise to 75, the big blind folds and both limpers call. The pot is now 240. The flop comes 9d 6d 4h. What’s your action?

Answer: Bet! That’s a great flop for your hand. You have two big overcards and the nut flush draw, giving you 15 outs twice against an opponent with one pair – that’s just about even money. And by betting, you may induce incorrect folds by opponents with hands like 33 or 76, as well as correct folds by hands like QJ (you’d rather bet and have QJ correctly fold, than check and give a free card). You know how everybody says you should play tight-aggressive? Well, this is the aggressive part. You need to make a sizable bet, at least 2/3 of the pot. If you said “check and call”, you are playing weak-tight. That’s a serious leak in your game that needs to be addressed before you play SNGs above the $10 level.











You bet 160. The first limper folds and the button calls. There are now 560 chips in the pot and you both have 765 chips left. The turn card is the Jh. What’s your action?

Answer: Poker is a tough game, isn’t it? You don’t have much information about your opponent’s hand – that’s the drawback of playing out of position. I will say that you are unlikely to be way behind at this point. It would be hard for him to have two pair on such a ragged board. A set is always a possibility, but you can’t live in fear of that. So your options are essentially: check with the intention of calling a reasonable bet; bet all-in; or bet a lesser amount. Checking is the worst option. If your opponent is drawing, a check gives him a free card; if he has a pair, your check tells him that his hand is good. The second-worst option is betting all-in. An all-in is, ironically, more likely to be called than a smaller bet, because by overbetting you are clearly saying that you don’t want a call. I believe the best play is to bet about 300. That’s an effective pressure bet against an opponent with one pair: you are representing an overpair, and you have enough chips left to potentially make a large bet on the river. An opponent holding a hand like T9 or 88 will have a very tough call here. This is what Ciaffone and Reuben refer to as “knowing when to fire the second barrel”, i.e. lead out on the turn after betting the flop. It’s one of the trickiest decisions in no-limit hold’em.











You bet 300, and the button quickly calls. You each now have 465 chips and the pot is 1160. The river is the As. What’s your action?

Answer: You must check. Checking seems counterintuitive, because the river improved your hand, but with a little thought, the logic becomes obvious. If your opponent has a smaller pair, that ace will likely convince him that he’s beaten (if he wasn’t already) and he won’t call a large bet. If he was drawing to a flush, he obviously cannot call anything. If he made aces up, he will happily go all-in no matter what you do. So betting makes no sense; you can’t make a superior hand fold, and a lesser hand is unlikely to call. Check, and give him a chance to bluff at this big pot. (You might want to hesitate a little before checking, as a false tell.) Call any bet. If he made aces up, so be it. There’s no way you can release the hand at this point. Note: another option would be to make a small “milking” bet of 150 chips or so. That’s a more advanced play that deserves a post of its own. Suffice to say that in this situation I’d rather try to induce a steal.











You wait about 15 seconds and then check. The button goes all-in, and you call. He shows QdTd. He had quite a few outs, but that ace wasn’t one of them. You doubled up on the first hand! Well played!

Sunday, September 04, 2005

Well, that's one way to play the game

Game #814942954: Texas Hold'em No Limit (25/50) - 2005/09/04 - 12:44:15 (ET)
Table "CPC_TIME 1012910 - 39" Seat 5 is the button.
Seat 1: vinna (2575 in chips)
Seat 2: PokerRabbit (2625 in chips)
Seat 3: Rich89e88 (6395 in chips)
Seat 4: Qwackers (4275 in chips)
Seat 5: LancerYD (2995 in chips)
Seat 6: ThomasCSS (2605 in chips)
Seat 7: Vendetta (2525 in chips)
Seat 8: TheKooK (5810 in chips)
Seat 9: BRADSZ2 (1345 in chips)
Seat 10: Monachris (2775 in chips)
ThomasCSS: posts small blind 25
Vendetta: posts big blind 50
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to PokerRabbit [Qc Qh]
TheKooK: calls 50
BRADSZ2: calls 50
Monachris: calls 50
vinna: calls 50
PokerRabbit: raises to 400
Rich89e88: folds
Qwackers: folds
LancerYD: folds
ThomasCSS: folds
Vendetta: folds
TheKooK: folds
BRADSZ2: raises to 1345 and is all-in
Monachris: folds
vinna: folds
PokerRabbit: calls 945
----- FLOP ----- [3h 4c 3d]
----- TURN ----- [3h 4c 3d][5c]
----- RIVER ----- [3h 4c 3d 5c][Tc]
BRADSZ2 sits out
----- SHOW DOWN -----
BRADSZ2: shows [8s Ac] (A Pair of Threes, Ace high)
PokerRabbit: shows [Qc Qh] (Two Pairs, Queens and Threes, Ten high)
PokerRabbit collected 2915 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot 2915 Main pot 2915 Rake 0
Board [3h 4c 3d 5c Tc]
Seat 1: vinna folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: PokerRabbit showed [Qc Qh] and won (2915) with Two Pairs, Queens and
Threes, Ten highSeat 3: Rich89e88 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Qwackers folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: LancerYD (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: ThomasCSS (small blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Vendetta (big blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: TheKooK folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 10: Monachris folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Monday, August 29, 2005

Don't Fear the Reaper

... but tremble before the IRS. (And I would know -- I used to work for them.)

Iggy has a good post up about taxes and gambling, and so does Taxable Talk. The news is not good, and explodes a lot of cherished myths that are so often repeated on the 2+2 boards.

First of all, just because your poker income derives from offshore sites, that doesn't mean you don't have to report it (or even that you can defer reporting it until you actually cash out). Just ask anyone who makes money from offshore investments -- poker works the same way. If the money is in an account under your name, and you are free to withdraw it, it's yours and you must pay taxes on it.

Second, you must report ALL winnings under "other income" (line 21 on the 2004 1040), which means you add up every winning session and report the total. Losses are reported later, as an itemized deduction in Schedule A. Yes, this means you are basically screwed if you don't itemize deductions. And even if you do itemize, you can only deduct losses to the extent of your winnings, and your winnings may very well put you in a higher tax bracket. Consequently, nearly all winning players, and even some losing ones, have to pay extra taxes. Intended? Probably not, but that's the law, and the IRS will take every penny they are legally entitled to.

Finally, it is essential to keep detailed records. When it comes to taxes, there is no presumption of innocence. The burden of proof is on the taxpayer. Please don't assume you won't be audited because you are "too small to bother with". The IRS is not stupid, and they understand the necessity of making an example of the small fry tax evader. If they really only went after rich people and corporations, as some believe, they would be faced with rampant tax cheating by the self-employed, waitresses, poker dealers, etc. I know of one casino whose employees were audited en masse because the floorpeople, dealers, chip runners, and cocktail waitresses were "not reporting enough tip income". Let me repeat: the IRS is not stupid, and you would be absolutely amazed at the extent to which the law is on their side.

Can the IRS see withdrawals from a Neteller account? Definitely, if you withdraw to a US bank account. If you withdraw via debit card, I'm not sure. Since Neteller is not an American bank, the IRS would have no legal means of compelling their cooperation; however, I suspect that if they really wanted to, they would be able to obtain the records. Canada is not Iran, after all. The Canadians have no interest in helping Americans conceal income or launder money.

There is one positive note. Even though online gambling is illegal in the United States, you will almost certainly not be prosecuted for reporting it on a 1040. There are legal barriers in place that prevent the IRS from freely sharing information with law enforcement agencies; and even if they could, the legal status of online gambling is so nebulous that I doubt any prosecutor would bother taking action. It is much, much harder to prosecute someone for a crime than it is to fine them for tax evasion.

I'm a star!

OK, not really, but it was still pretty cool to be mentioned on the Lord Admiral podcast yesterday. They talked about my take on Columbo's One Minute Mystery. Unfortunately the discussion centered more on slowplaying in the abstract than on this particular hand, and I still am 95% sure I was right about this one :). No need to rehash it though. I laid my case out in the "One Minute Mystery" post, and folks can make up their own minds.

I do agree with the point that slowplaying/trapping is overused and often misused by many players. Like Cinci Sean, I've also been saved a lot of money by weak players deciding to slowplay against me. But like someone (I forget who) mentioned on the show, instinct plays a big role here. My instinct on this hand would definitely be to trap and try to get the money in on the flop rather than preflop. YMMV.

Thanks for taking the time to respond on air, guys, and as always, your show rocked.

Friday, August 26, 2005

When Playing Bad is Playing Good

Example.

Last hand of the Bodog $109 tournament this weekend. I’m down to 525 chips at the 25/50 limit and raise to 200 under the gun with pocket tens. I’m called by one big stack and one late-position player who has about 800 chips. The flop comes 9-5-5, I push in my last 325, the big stack folds, and the short stack insta-calls me with QJo. Turn is a Q and I’m done.

So why did this annoy me? Both his preflop and postflop calls were actually correct according to the fundamental theorem! If he had magically been able to see my cards, he would have played the hand exactly the same way. (On the flop, he is a 3:1 dog and getting slightly more than 3:1 pot odds.) But given that he couldn’t see my cards, his play was absolutely terrible. His postflop call is only correct if I hold a pocket pair less than jacks. If I have AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ, AJ, KQ, or KJ, all of which are entirely possible and which I play the same way, he’s dominated with 3 outs or less. He’s not even quite getting the odds to call a bet from AK (since AK has a bigger redraw than a pocket pair). And it is unlikely I’d have something like JT, QT or even a pair less than 10s, given that I was short-stacked and raised over a third of my stack under the gun. His terrible call turned out to be a great one.

Another example. $200 NL cash game, 6-handed, blinds are $1-$2. This is only my third orbit and there has been little action, so I have no reads. I’m on the big blind with Kc2h. The button limps, the SB completes and I check. Flop AcKhKd. SB checks, I check (thinking nobody has anything and the only money I’ll make is from a possible steal attempt by the button). Button checks, telling me that he has nothing and there’s no need to slowplay any more. Turn is the 6c. The SB leads out with a $4 bet, which I raise to $12. The button folds, and the SB goes all-in for another $60 and change. Hmm… decision time. In the absence of any read, I decide I pretty much have to assume he has a full house or a king with a good kicker, and I fold. He shows me K4. As it happened, he played it exactly right for the hand I held, getting me out of what would almost certainly have been a split pot, but his play would have been wrong for any other possible raising hand of mine (except K3). If I have a king with a decent kicker, or a full house, I obviously call him, but I can’t call him with an ace or a flush draw… the classic definition of a bet that can only get action from a better hand. I told him what I mucked and he didn’t believe me, which pretty much proves he made the right play for the wrong reasons.

Basically, it irks me when somebody makes a terrible play that turns out to have been correct in that single circumstance. Taking bad beats doesn’t bother me, because I know the cards will even out in the long run. But it’s so damn frustrating when I take a good beat that still shouldn’t have happened if my opponent hadn’t been a total donkey! Another example of this is when one player raises all-in preflop with 99, I reraise all-in with JJ, and a third player with KQ overcalls and hits a king or queen to triple up. I can’t simply say “he made a bad call”, because in fact he made a good call, but he still shouldn’t have made it based on the ranges of hands his opponents could hold. I need to think of a name for this type of beat. How about the Blind Pig beat? (As in, even a blind pig finds an acorn every now and then.)

Tuesday, August 23, 2005

Mystery Solved

Since James already got the right answer, I’ll go ahead and post the solution to yesterday’s puzzle.

Scenario: There are two tables left in the tournament, and you have 26,000 in chips – an average stack. The blinds are 600/1200 and you’re dealt Q7o on the big blind. An extremely tough and tricky player open-limps in the cutoff, and the button (another tough player) also calls. The cutoff has about 19,000 chips and the button has you both covered. The small blind folds, and you check. The flop comes Q73 rainbow – you’ve flopped top two pair. You decide to play it straightforwardly, and lead out with a 3,000 bet. The first opponent raises to 10,000 and the second player calls. How do you maximize your expected value on this hand?

Answer: Fold. (Did the line about maximizing value throw you off? The way to maximize value on a losing hand is to muck it!) What can you put these opponents on? Remember the preflop action. Neither one of them would have limped in late position with a hand like AQ or KQ – they would certainly have raised. Their limping indicates they either have a monster hand, or a speculative one such as a suited connector or a small pocket pair. On the flop, the raise to 10K from the first opponent obviously indicates strength, and in this context probably means an overpair that he slowplayed before the flop. That would be fine, of course; but what about the button’s call? A flat call of such a large bet would always look suspicious, but in this case it’s doubly suspicious because there are no draws on board, and no reasonable hand could have made a lesser two pair than yours. He could also have an overpair, but what are the chances of both players deciding to slowplay aces or kings preflop? Conclusion: the button has a set. There’s almost literally nothing else he can be calling with, unless he is a complete idiot, which we know he is not.

And that’s exactly what happened. I used my entire time bank before agonizedly mucking my top two pair. The CO went all-in for his last 8K on the turn, and the button quickly called. They showed down AA and 77 respectively. The button eliminated a tough opponent in a huge pot, and I dodged a bullet!

Monday, August 22, 2005

One Minute Mystery

I was listening to yesterday's Lord Admiral Radio podcast this morning and they included a listener submission: the One Minute Mystery. It’s a quick poker scenario involving a difficult tournament hand and some discussion thereof. It was submitted by Columbo of PokerWannabe. Let me start off by saying that while I love both the podcast and the blog, in this case I completely disagree with everyone’s analysis of the hand.

Scenario: Round 2 of an online low buy-in tournament with 2000 entrants. Blinds are 10/20 and hero has 800 chips of a starting stack of 1000. Hero is dealt QQ under the gun and raises to 75. A mid-position player reraises to 130, the button flat calls, and the blinds fold. Both opponents have the hero covered. What’s the best play here?

The Lord Admiral crew was split, with all of them voicing concerns that an opponent might hold AA or KK. Cincinnati Sean felt that the best course was to call and then abandon ship unless you hit a queen on the flop; Mark and Jake advocated reraising. In the prerecorded answer segment, Columbo stated that jamming was the best option, because the probable low skill level of your opponents means they may call you with Ax-type hands that you lead by 2:1 or more.

I do agree with Columbo’s premise that your opponents are not very strong, and I don’t think you need to worry too much about AA or KK here. The mid-position player only raised the minimum, which might be suspicious from a strong player, but in this low-buy-in tournament it smells like weakness. And if the button had aces or kings, he would almost certainly have reraised; with two raises in front of him, he wouldn’t see the need to slowplay. He is probably just chasing because he thinks this will be a big pot. I agree that the most likely hands for both these opponents are AK, Ax or perhaps medium pocket pair. So you probably have the best hand, and given your stack size, you have a decent expectation of getting called for all your chips.

But why reraise before the flop? What nobody on the show seemed to recognize is that this is a premium trapping spot! By making your move preflop, you’re depriving yourself of too much information, and depriving your opponents of the opportunity to bet for you. My line in this hand would be to flat call the preflop raise, closing the action. Now you have 670 chips and the pot is 420. On the flop, no matter what falls, you check. I guarantee that someone will bet, because they will see your check as a sign of timidity and that pot is too tempting to pass up. If an A or K is on board, release your hand. But if no overcard flops, and the board is not too scary (such as three of a suit you don’t have), you spring your trap and check-raise all-in. At least one of your opponents will be committed and forced to call, and if all they hold is a smaller pair or an overcard, they are now a huge underdog to your queens – much more so than they were before the flop. On the other hand, if you are outdrawn on the flop, it will usually be obvious and you will save your remaining 670 chips, definitely a playable stack for this stage of the tournament. Compared to simply jamming preflop, you’ve increased your chance of doubling up and dramatically lowered your chance of busting out.

Trapping is a huge part of no-limit, and in order to trap you must occasionally surrender the initiative even when you’re pretty sure you have the best hand. It can be counterintuitive for limit players, or players who adhere to the “raw aggression” school of play (those players shouldn’t try to trap anyway, because they have no problem getting action). But Columbo didn't strike me as that type of player, and if there was ever a good spot to lay a trap, this hand is it.

I wrote up a little one-minute mystery of my own, based on a hand I was involved in this weekend.

Scenario: There are two tables left in the tournament, and you have 26,000 in chips – an average stack. The blinds are 600/1200 and you’re dealt Q7o on the big blind. An extremely tough and tricky player open-limps in the cutoff position, and the button (another tough player) also calls. The cutoff has about 19,000 chips and the button has you both covered. The small blind folds, and you check. The flop comes Q73 rainbow – you’ve flopped top two pair. You decide to play it straightforwardly, and lead out with a 3,000 bet. The first opponent raises to 10,000 and the second player calls. How do you maximize your expected value on this hand? Answer to be posted later this week.

Monday, August 08, 2005

Hi, my name is Poker Rabbit, and I'm a bonus whore

The weekend was pretty dismal and I finished stuck about $550 for poker (being on the losing end of set-over-set in three key pots will do that). Luckily, though, I hit a royal flush on video poker while casino whoring and won a little over $1000. That made up for my poker losses and paid for some repairs on my car. If you’re not doing any casino whoring, you really should be – check out this article on Sound of a Suckout for the basics, and the Bonus Whores forums for up-to-date information. The general idea is that although casino games are not beatable, some sites offer enough bonus money to make it +EV to sign up, clear the bonus and leave. Unfortunately, if you are new to the world of whoredom, the glory days are past – the casinos have taken big financial losses from armies of bonus abusers and have tightened their requirements. (Most of the abusers are from Denmark, Israel, Poland, and especially China, where bonus whoring has become a cottage industry and is even indirectly supported by the government, in the form of how-to pamphlets and the like. The Terms and Conditions of online casinos often specifically exclude citizens of those countries, which used to make me wonder what kind of strange bigot had it in for Jews, Danes, Poles, and Chinese.)

Speaking of EV and promotions, I’ve seen a few bloggers mention the Noble Poker $1 million challenge. Noble is offering a million bucks to anyone who can win seven SNGs in a row. If you are a great player employing a highly aggressive bubble strategy and you have a 15% chance of winning any given SNG, in order to have a 50% chance of winning 7 in a row you would need to play about 477,000 SNGs. (The math on this is a bit complicated but the formula can be found here.) That would not be a bad gamble, actually, since you would be investing $477,000 in juice (at the $10 level) for $500,000 in expected value… the only problem is that no one can play that many SNGs in their lifetime. Basically, I don’t think it’s worthwhile to invest time and money in the SNG Challenge. With the astronomical variance, a vast majority of the time you’d be better off taking a simple 25% rakeback deal. Also, the promotion is highly skill-dependent. If you’re an exactly average player with a 10% chance of winning each SNG, you’d have to play over seven million games to have an even chance of hitting the jackpot. And then there’s the chance of someone else hitting it before you, which would (presumably) cause them to call a halt to the whole thing.

I did think of a way to let the promotion work to your short-term advantage, though. Sit down at a table and excitedly tell all the other players that you’ve just won 6 in a row, and if they let you win this one you’ll give them each $10,000. Kidding. I’m not dishonest enough to do this. But it would be funny as hell if it worked.

Props to Pacific

After a few emails to Pacific’s customer service, they once again proved themselves a class act by agreeing to refund me the $110 buy-in from last week’s Weekly Whopper (software problems forced me out of the tournament – see Tournament Play-by-Play). I reinstalled their software, rejiggered some of my firewall settings, and this week’s tournament went off without a hitch. Other than donking off my stack bluffing into the nut straight, of course, but that wasn’t their fault...